“Get our Week 4 college football preview with six game breakdowns, a road dog, a moneyline parlay, and of course, a teaser.”
2026 College Football Week 4 Best Bets Breakdown & Timestamps
0:00 – Intro & Week 3 Recap
Lane Kiffin’s Return to Oxford, ranking quirks, and weather-delay issues
7:00 – Power Rankings Adjustments
Team’s trending up and down
20:39– Clemson At Cal
26:00 – #1 Texas at #14 Tennessee
30:18 – #4 Ole Miss at #21 florida
35:51 – #17 Iowa at #18 Michigan
40:00 – #23 Texas A&M at #10 LSU
45:05 – #20 Oregon at #12 USC
Road Dogs?
58:41– Best Bets
Week 3 Takeaways
Ole Miss handled Lane Kiffin’s return to The Grove in a dramatic 32-24 win. The Rebels built a big lead, absorbed an LSU rally, and closed it out. LSU dropped only two spots in the rankings after the road loss while other teams fell further for lesser results, highlighting early-season poll inconsistencies. Ten SEC teams sit in the Top 25, underscoring the conference’s depth even as several programs remain on fraud watch until conference play intensifies.
Weather delays again disrupted games, most notably at Clemson-North Carolina. UNC dominated much of the contest and sat on the 8-yard line late before a lengthy delay for lightning reported well outside the stadium. Standardized procedures for Division I games would help. Big games otherwise delivered: Houston-Texas Tech came down to inches on a two-point conversion, and several favorites survived late scares that reminded everyone why 18-to-22-year-olds produce both peak highs and sudden collapses.
Trending up: Ole Miss after the emotional home win, Mississippi State after impressive road and conference victories, and Louisville after a physical ACC win that boosted its championship and playoff résumé.
Trending down: Oklahoma after a sluggish win over a depleted New Mexico squad and questions about its run game ahead of a trip to Georgia; Texas A&M after a home loss to Kentucky; and Virginia after a loss that exposed limitations.
Clemson At Cal
Friday, Sept. 25, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Clemson -1.5 | Cal +1.5 | Total 50.5
Memorial Stadium, Berkeley. Mid-50s, mild wind, no rain.
Clemson travels across the country for a late kickoff after a weather-delayed win over North Carolina. The Tigers have looked shaky in all three games. Cal’s offense has been inconsistent after an opening loss to UCLA (a result that looks better now), but the Golden Bears won at Syracuse and handled Wagner.
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (JKS) gives Cal a clear quarterback edge over Clemson’s options. The Bears’ home environment in Berkeley can get loud, and the body-clock disadvantage plus short rest after delays tilts this toward the home side.
Pick: Cal moneyline and Under 50.5. Friday night home dogs tend to bark, and Clemson’s offense has been inept enough that the total should stay low.
#1 Texas at #14 Tennessee
Saturday, Sept. 26, 12 p.m. ET, ABC
Texas -5.5 | Tennessee +5.5 | Total 55.5
Neyland Stadium, Knoxville. 70s, sunny, low wind.
Check out the full pod for this pick!
#4 Ole Miss at #21 Florida
Saturday, Sept. 26, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Florida -3 | Ole Miss +3 | Total 58.5
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville.
Ole Miss just played its Super Bowl at home against Kiffin and LSU. The emotional letdown spot is obvious. Kewan Lacy is questionable after leaving the LSU game. Florida gets its top receiver Eric Singleton Jr. back and features Jadan Baugh, one of the nation’s most physical running backs.
The Gators already scored 40-plus on the road against an SEC opponent. Public money has flooded Ole Miss, which is exactly why the number sits where it does.
Pick: Florida -3 and Over 58.5. Do not bet against the Swamp in this spot.
#17 Iowa at #18 Michigan
Saturday, Sept. 26, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Michigan -5.5 | Iowa +5.5 | Total 38.5
Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor. 70s and sunny.
Both defenses rank among the nation’s best. Iowa leads the country in yards allowed. Michigan’s offense, even with Bryce Underwood showing more ability to throw, remains limited. Iowa will try to drag the game into the mud, punt when necessary, and win with special teams and ball security. Kirk Ferentz’s teams rarely beat themselves. Getting more than a field goal with a total this low is generous.
Pick: Iowa +5.5. The Hawkeyes have a real shot to win outright.
#23 Texas A&M at #10 LSU
Saturday, Sept. 26, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
LSU -8.5 | Texas A&M +8.5 | Total 51.5
Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge. 60s and clear.
Check out the full pod for this pick!
#20 Oregon at #12 USC
Saturday, Sept. 26, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC
Oregon -3 | USC +3 | Total 62.5
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. 70s, mild wind.
Dante Moore and Jayden Maiava are two of the most talented quarterbacks in the country. USC’s defense remains a concern, especially up front. Oregon’s defensive front returns intact after a wake-up call at Oklahoma State followed by an 84-0 demolition.
Historical meetings between these programs routinely produce 60-plus points. Trent Mosley is expected to miss the game for USC.
Pick: Over 62.5. Both defenses are suspect enough that the shootout number is live.
Best Bets
Lock (2 units): Florida -3 in the Swamp. The letdown spot after Ole Miss’s emotional win is too perfect.
Money-line dog (1 unit): Texas A&M +275 moneyline at LSU. The price is generous given Elko’s track record in hostile environments and LSU’s injuries.
Three-team Moneyline parlay (half unit): Texas moneyline + Florida moneyline + Oregon moneyline.
Six-point teaser (half unit): Iowa +11.5, Texas +0.5, Cal +7.5.
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