Get expert DAL Cowboys vs. WAS Commanders Christmas Day Thursday Night Football insights for Week 17. We break down odds, quarterback chaos, key trends, and alternative fantasy angles before you make your game day picks.
1 week 'til Christmas Gameday!
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders @ 1 PM ET
Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings @ 4:30 PM ET
LIVE on Netflix December 25 🎄 pic.twitter.com/FrMw4ezeOZ— Netflix (@netflix) December 18, 2025
When: Thursday, December 25, 2025 | 1:00 p.m. ET
Where: Northwest Stadium — Landover, Maryland
Weather: 38 °F | Rain | 9 MPH Wind
TV: Netflix
Spread: DAL -6.5
Total: 50.5 points
Moneyline: DAL -285 / WAS +235
DAL Cowboys vs. WAS Commanders Game Day Preview
Christmas Day football takes on a very different tone in Landover this year, as the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders square off in a Week 17 divisional matchup fueled more by pride than playoff implications.
Dallas (6-8-1) enters the holiday matchup having officially been eliminated from postseason contention, yet still favored by nearly a touchdown thanks to a massive edge at quarterback. Washington (4-11) finds itself navigating a nightmare scenario under center, with rookie Jayden Daniels sidelined for the season and Marcus Mariota dealing with hand and quad injuries — leaving journeyman Josh Johnson as the expected starter.
Despite both teams playing out the string, this rivalry still carries weight. Dallas is looking to halt a three-game losing streak and avoid finishing with a losing record, while Washington is desperate to give its home crowd something to cheer about on Christmas afternoon.
Dallas Cowboys
2025 Record: 6-8-1 (2nd NFC East)
2025 Road Record: 2-5
2025 ATS Record: 7-8
StatementGames NFL Power Ranking: 18
The Cowboys’ 2025 season will be remembered as a missed opportunity. After entering the year with expectations of contending in the NFC, Dallas instead finds itself eliminated with two games remaining and facing difficult questions about the future of the coaching staff and roster construction.
Still, the offense remains the team’s clear strength. Dak Prescott continues to operate one of the league’s most productive passing attacks, and Dallas ranks near the top of the NFL in total offense. Head coach Brian Schottenheimer has made it clear that there will be no shutdowns or evaluation mode — Prescott will play, and the Cowboys intend to finish strong.
The challenge for Dallas has been consistency. Defensive pressure has dipped in recent weeks, and the unit struggled mightily in a Week 16 loss to the Chargers. Against a Washington team likely starting its third quarterback, this sets up as a prime “get-right” opportunity.
#DallasCowboys VP Stephen Jones confirms QB Dak Prescott will “absolutely” play on Christmas vs Commanders. “Our goal is to win the football game. Our goal is to finish strong.” pic.twitter.com/U5VidYxbAS
— The Cowboys Network (@TheCowboysNet) December 22, 2025
Washington Commanders
2025 Record: 4-11 (3rd NFC East)
2025 Home Record: 2-5
2025 ATS Record: 5-10
StatementGames NFL Power Ranking: 26
Washington’s season effectively unraveled when rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels suffered a season-ending elbow injury. Since then, the Commanders have struggled to generate any consistency on offense, and the situation worsened this week with Marcus Mariota battling injuries of his own.
That leaves Josh Johnson — a veteran backup with limited recent reps — potentially starting on Christmas Day against a Dallas defense eager to make a statement. Head coach Dan Quinn has emphasized accountability and standards in recent press conferences, but execution has remained an issue, particularly on defense.
The Commanders have been especially vulnerable against the spread and have failed to protect their home field. With emotions still high following a heated loss to Philadelphia last week, Washington will need a near-perfect defensive effort to stay competitive.
spreading holiday cheer in our community 💛 pic.twitter.com/48N9PGycdW
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) December 22, 2025
Cowboys vs. Commanders Facts
- Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last five games against Washington.
- The OVER has hit in five of Dallas’ last six games.
- The Cowboys won the first meeting this season 44–22, exposing a clear offensive mismatch.
Americas Team vs. Commanders Alternative Fantasy Football Picks
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NFL Christmas Day Football PREDICTIONS – Diamonds In The Rough:
- Game Total UNDER 50.5 PTS
- DAL DEF OVER 4,5 Sacks
- DAL Will WIN By OVER 5.5 PTS
Thank you for reading my DAL Cowboys vs. WSH Commanders – Christmas Day Football Game Day Preview: 12.25.2025! You can read more of my sports betting content on my SG Team Author Page. Feel free to connect with me on X (@MarcSaulino) and follow @StatementGames to stay informed about everything relevant to game day previews.
